Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38%, yet in-form Sandefjord provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Sandefjord to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Sandefjord's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% versus Sandefjord 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.716 / defence 0.902 | Sandefjord attack 1.083 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 43 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% | Draw 33% | Sandefjord 29%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Sandefjord 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Sandefjord 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% | Draw 33% | Sandefjord 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 / Sandefjord 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.716 / def 0.902 | Sandefjord attack 1.083 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sandefjord xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 38% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.72x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
38%
2.62
33%
3.02
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.48
1.14
Sandefjord xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.14 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 13D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (15W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (9W 1D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.14 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Sandefjord away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.33 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, Sandefjord have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%, Sandefjord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 57% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 52% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 57% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.72 / defence 0.90 against Sandefjord attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% | Draw 33% | Sandefjord 29%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, Sandefjord 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.