Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 63%, yet in-form Lillestrom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Lillestrom at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lillestrom — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Lillestrom 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 3–1 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 62% and Lillestrom 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Lillestrom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.20 xG and Lillestrom 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.151 / defence 0.797 | Lillestrom attack 1.050 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Stromsgodset's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Stromsgodset games / 13 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 63% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 13%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Lillestrom 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Lillestrom 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 63% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Stromsgodset 2.20 / Lillestrom 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.151 / def 0.797 | Lillestrom attack 1.050 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lillestrom xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom part of?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 63% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stromsgodset and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.15) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.24
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.18
0.98
Lillestrom xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
1%
67.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.98 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stromsgodset's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lillestrom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Lillestrom away?
Stromsgodset's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 2.33 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 67%, Lillestrom at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 67% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Stromsgodset's games and 83% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 67% of Lillestrom's.
Do Stromsgodset and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.20 xG and Lillestrom 0.98 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Lillestrom attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 63% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 13%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Lillestrom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.