Stabaek vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Stabaek take on Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Stabaek welcome Haugesund to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haugesund — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 1, Haugesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 54% versus Haugesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 58% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.14 xG and Haugesund 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.729 / defence 1.373 | Haugesund attack 0.723 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Stabaek games / 43 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 32% | Draw 35% | Haugesund 33%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Haugesund 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 50% | Haugesund 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 32% | Draw 35% | Haugesund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Stabaek 1.14 / Haugesund 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.729 / def 1.373 | Haugesund attack 0.723 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Haugesund xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Haugesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Haugesund part of?
Stabaek vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 32% chance of winning, Haugesund a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stabaek and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in?
Stabaek (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Haugesund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
35%
2.88
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.30
1.16
Haugesund xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.16 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 15D 17L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 17W 10D 16L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.12 PPG, Haugesund on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Haugesund away?
Stabaek's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.19 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Haugesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Haugesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 38%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stabaek) and 52% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games; Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stabaek's recent matches and 52% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stabaek's recent games and 52% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Stabaek and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.14 xG and Haugesund 1.16 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.73 / defence 1.37 against Haugesund attack 0.72 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 32% | Draw 35% | Haugesund 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 58%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.12 PPG, Haugesund 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.