Lillestrom 2-3 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 5W 1D 2L from 8 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brann (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lillestrom's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Brann's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lillestrom lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 65% and Brann 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 53% | Brann 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.58 xG and Brann 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.774 / defence 0.897 | Brann attack 0.879 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Lillestrom games / 47 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 30% | Brann 21%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Brann 4.76. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 50% | Brann 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 30% | Brann 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Lillestrom 1.58 / Brann 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.774 / def 0.897 | Brann attack 0.879 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brann xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Lillestrom 2 - 3 Brann.
Where is Lillestrom vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 49% chance of winning, Brann a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 1 | Brann 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Brann (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.88x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.36
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.54
0.97
Brann xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.97 for Brann, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 9W 4D 4L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 2W 4D 11L from 17 games, 0.59 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Brann have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.06 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Brann in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Brann have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.00 PPG; Brann away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 0, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 50%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lillestrom) and 62% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Brann in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 50% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lillestrom's recent games and 62% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Brann tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Brann in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Lillestrom 2-3 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.58 xG and Brann 0.97 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Brann outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.77 / defence 0.90 against Brann attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 49% | Draw 30% | Brann 21%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 53%, Brann 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Brann winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lillestrom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.