Rosenborg vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Rosenborg's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rosenborg 1W, Brann 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2021, ended 3–2 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 57% and Brann 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 64% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.07 xG and Brann 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.062 / defence 0.969 | Brann attack 0.859 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 44 Rosenborg games / 44 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 60% | Draw 25% | Brann 15%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Brann 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 50% | Brann 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 60% | Draw 25% | Brann 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 2.07 / Brann 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.062 / def 0.969 | Brann attack 0.859 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brann xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 60% chance of winning, Brann a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Brann (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.06x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.86x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
60%
1.65
25%
4.00
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.04
0.97
Brann xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
2%
54.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.97 for Brann, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 44 games, going 21W 11D 12L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 0.98 PPG from 44 outings (10W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 14W 4D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.20 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 21W 11D 12L in their last 44 games (1.68 PPG), while Brann have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.09 PPG; Brann away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rosenborg 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Brann 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Rosenborg and 54% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brann in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rosenborg's games and 54% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Rosenborg's matches and 54% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Brann in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Brann finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.07 xG and Brann 0.97 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Brann attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 60% | Draw 25% | Brann 15%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 64%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.