Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Sandefjord Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sandefjord at 1.60 PPG versus Bodo/Glimt's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 46% versus Bodo/Glimt 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 54% | Bodo/Glimt 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.25 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.867 / defence 0.982 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.048 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 43 Sandefjord games / 44 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 34% | Draw 34% | Bodo/Glimt 32%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Bodo/Glimt 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 34% | Draw 34% | Bodo/Glimt 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Sandefjord 1.25 / Bodo/Glimt 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.867 / def 0.982 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.048 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bodo/Glimt xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 34% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
34%
2.91
34%
2.98
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.45
1.20
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.20 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 9D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.40 PPG from 43 outings (32W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 6W 7D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.05 points per game from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.98 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 7D 4L in their last 43 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.25 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Bodo/Glimt 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sandefjord and 75% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sandefjord's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 75% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.25 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.20 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.05 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 34% | Draw 34% | Bodo/Glimt 32%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 54%, Bodo/Glimt 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.