Viking vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host ODD Ballklubb at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Viking at 1.50 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
ODD Ballklubb have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Viking's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 2–3 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ODD Ballklubb have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 65% and ODD Ballklubb 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 77% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.24 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.137 / defence 1.095 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.932 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 43 Viking games / 44 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 59% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 17%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | ODD Ballklubb 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Viking (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 59% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Viking 2.24 / ODD Ballklubb 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.137 / def 1.095 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.932 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Viking (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.19
ODD Ballklubb xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 59% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Viking and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 3W.
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.14x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.21
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Viking xG
Total xG
3.43
1.19
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
2%
54.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Viking and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Viking and 1.19 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.44 PPG from 43 outings (18W 8D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.44 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Viking's home form reads 10W 6D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.65 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Viking's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.71 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Viking
4
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Viking and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 71%, ODD Ballklubb 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Viking and 57% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Viking's games and 52% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Viking's matches and 57% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Viking and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Viking and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.24 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.19 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 2.2 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 59% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 17%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 77%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.44 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.