Sandefjord 1-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Lillestrom travel to Release Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Release Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lillestrom's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lillestrom trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 46% versus Lillestrom 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 62% | Lillestrom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.67 xG and Lillestrom 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / defence 0.983 | Lillestrom attack 1.049 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 43 Sandefjord games / 13 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 45% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 25%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Lillestrom 4.00. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Lillestrom 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 45% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandefjord 1.67 / Lillestrom 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / def 0.983 | Lillestrom attack 1.049 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lillestrom xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Sandefjord 1 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom part of?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 45% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.87) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.37
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.87
1.20
Lillestrom xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.20 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 1D 6L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.46 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lillestrom's season.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 1D 6L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Lillestrom away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.67 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Lillestrom runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 50%, Lillestrom at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 67% (Lillestrom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandefjord's games and 83% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sandefjord and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Release Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Sandefjord and Lillestrom drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.67 xG and Lillestrom 1.20 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Lillestrom attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 45% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 25%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Lillestrom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lillestrom's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.46 PPG, Lillestrom 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.