Rosenborg 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 0.90 PPG lead over Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.47 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.442 / defence 1.172 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.972 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.227. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Rosenborg games / 36 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 59% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 59% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Rosenborg 2.47 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.442 / def 1.172 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.972 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Rosenborg 0 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 59% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.44) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.97x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 38/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.66
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.86
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
8%
11.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
2%
61.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.40 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 15W 7D 8L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
3
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 47% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Rosenborg 0-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.47 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.44 / defence 1.17 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 59% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.