Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 10 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Bodo/Glimt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.025 / defence 1.027 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.224 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.430. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 30 Bodo/Glimt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 39%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 / Bodo/Glimt 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.025 / def 1.027 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.224 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Bodo/Glimt xG
70%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.22x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
39%
2.55
22%
4.56
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.60
1.80
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
6%
15.39
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.80 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 11D 26L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.05 PPG from 60 outings (36W 15D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.97 points per game from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Bodo/Glimt 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.80 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 39%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, Bodo/Glimt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.