Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bodo/Glimt face Stabaek.

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Full Analysis

Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Stabaek's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stabaek in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Bodo/Glimt, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Stabaek — Stabaek have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Stabaek — a Bodo/Glimt win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Stabaek 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Stabaek 73%). Note also that Stabaek surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.29 xG and Stabaek 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.225 / defence 1.064 | Stabaek attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.078. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 31 games and Stabaek's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 18% | Stabaek 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.49 | Draw 5.42 | Stabaek 6.85. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 31 games, Stabaek 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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