Rosenborg 2-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.90 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 76% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.59 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.344 / defence 0.761 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.069 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Rosenborg games / 59 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 67% | Draw 17% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 16%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 67% | Draw 17% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 64% | xG Rosenborg 2.59 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.344 / def 0.761 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.069 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Rosenborg 2 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 67% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.34) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.07x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
67%
1.48
17%
5.88
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.78
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
8%
13.32
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
1%
85.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.19 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 29W 17D 13L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 22W 11D 26L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.28 PPG from 29 outings (20W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 3D 16L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.58 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 13L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 22W 11D 26L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.28 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
3
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Rosenborg and 69% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rosenborg's games and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Rosenborg's matches and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.59 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.34 / defence 0.76 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 67% | Draw 17% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 16%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 76%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.