Aalesund 0-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Aalesund welcome Valerenga to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Aalesund have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valerenga away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aalesund are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aalesund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Aalesund, 1 for Valerenga and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 53% versus Valerenga 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 60% | Valerenga 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.69 xG and Valerenga 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.914 / defence 0.947 | Valerenga attack 0.993 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.430. Data: 30 Aalesund games / 30 Valerenga games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Aalesund 46% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 31%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Valerenga 3.23. Aalesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aalesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 60% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 46% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Aalesund 1.69 / Valerenga 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.914 / def 0.947 | Valerenga attack 0.993 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Valerenga xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Aalesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Aalesund 0 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Aalesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Valerenga part of?
Aalesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 46% chance of winning, Valerenga a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Aalesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Record (4 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 3 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in?
Aalesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.91) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
46%
2.20
24%
4.20
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.03
1.34
Valerenga xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.34 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aalesund's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 12L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.30 PPG, Valerenga on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.73 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Valerenga away?
Aalesund's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.53 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and Valerenga runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Aalesund
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 60%, Valerenga 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Aalesund) and 60% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valerenga in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Aalesund's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Aalesund's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Aalesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valerenga defy the odds to beat Aalesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Aalesund 0-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.69 xG and Valerenga 1.34 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aalesund fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Valerenga attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 46% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 31%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 60%, Valerenga 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.30 PPG, Valerenga 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.