Ham-Kam 2-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 3W 3D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Ham-Kam) versus 0.50 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sandefjord trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 70% and Sandefjord 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 53% | Sandefjord 87%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.79 xG and Sandefjord 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.911 / defence 0.978 | Sandefjord attack 0.936 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.430. Data: 30 Ham-Kam games / 30 Sandefjord games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 28%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Sandefjord 3.57. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Ham-Kam 1.79 / Sandefjord 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.911 / def 0.978 | Sandefjord attack 0.936 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam 2 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 49% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 2W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.32
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.09
1.31
Sandefjord xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
5%
21.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.31 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 13D 11L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.80 PPG from 30 outings (6W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.03 PPG, Sandefjord on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ham-Kam's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (4W 0D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.43 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 6W 6D 18L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Sandefjord away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 6, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 60%, Sandefjord 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Ham-Kam and 87% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games; Sandefjord in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 47% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ham-Kam's matches and 87% of Sandefjord's.
Do Ham-Kam and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 2-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.79 xG and Sandefjord 1.31 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Sandefjord attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 28%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, Sandefjord 87%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.03 PPG, Sandefjord 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.