Stromsgodset 2-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Stromsgodset stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stromsgodset's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Stromsgodset's games and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's (from Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2022, ended Stromsgodset 2–2 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 52% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 64% | Bodo/Glimt 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stromsgodset surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.67 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.102 / defence 1.044 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.612 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.612, which lifts their away xG to 2.47. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 59 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 59.

Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 26% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.91 | Draw 5.26 | Bodo/Glimt 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.67 / 2.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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