Brann 3-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Haugesund (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brann's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haugesund — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brann, 3 for Haugesund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Haugesund 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 61% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.31 xG and Haugesund 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.993 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.205. Data: 0 Brann games / 30 Haugesund games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brann 35% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 39%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Haugesund 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 35% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 1.31 / Haugesund 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.993 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Haugesund xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:15 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Brann 3 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 35% chance of winning, Haugesund a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 3W.
What form are Brann and Haugesund in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.85) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.86
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Brann xG
Total xG
2.68
1.38
Haugesund xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Brann and 1.38 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 31 games, going 5W 12D 14L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 0.87 PPG, Haugesund on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.39 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Haugesund in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Brann's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.20 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 80%, Haugesund at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brann) and 53% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 53% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 53% of Haugesund's.
Do Brann and Haugesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 3-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.31 xG and Haugesund 1.38 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Haugesund attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 35% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 39%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 61%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 0.87 PPG, Haugesund 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.