Sandefjord 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 39%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 50% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 55% | Bodo/Glimt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.38 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.007 / defence 1.021 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.113 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.123. Data: 31 Sandefjord games / 31 Bodo/Glimt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 50% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 1.38 / Bodo/Glimt 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.007 / def 1.021 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.113 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 39% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.84
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.66
1.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.28 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 14D 27L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.40 PPG from 60 outings (44W 12D 4L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.17 points per game from 30 outings (19W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.30 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 43%, Bodo/Glimt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sandefjord and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bodo/Glimt defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.38 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.28 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.11 / defence 0.84, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 39% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 55%, Bodo/Glimt 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.