Rosenborg 1-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 5–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and ODD Ballklubb 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 68% | ODD Ballklubb 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.84 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.087 / defence 1.039 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.958 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.123. Data: 31 Rosenborg games / 31 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 23%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 4.35. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | ODD Ballklubb 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 1.84 / ODD Ballklubb 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.087 / def 1.039 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.958 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 54% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (4 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.38
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
27.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.12 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 16D 16L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 21W 13D 26L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.67 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.03 PPG from 30 outings (18W 7D 5L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 7D 15L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.60 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.03 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 63%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 53% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rosenborg's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.84 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.12 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 54% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 23%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, ODD Ballklubb 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.67 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.