Viking 1-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Viking. A 2.10 PPG lead over Aalesund (2.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2020, ended 5–2 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 77% and Aalesund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Aalesund 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.05 xG and Aalesund 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.113 / defence 1.030 | Aalesund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.216. Data: 31 Viking games / 1 Aalesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 60% | Draw 21% | Aalesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Aalesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Viking (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 100% | Aalesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 60% | Draw 21% | Aalesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Viking 2.05 / Aalesund 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.113 / def 1.030 | Aalesund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Viking (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Aalesund xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Aalesund kick off?
Viking vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Aalesund?
Viking 1 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Viking vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Aalesund part of?
Viking vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 60% chance of winning, Aalesund a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Viking and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Viking and Aalesund in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.11x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.85x) against Viking's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.79
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Viking xG
Total xG
3.11
1.06
Aalesund xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
13%
7.76
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
40.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Viking and 1.06 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Viking have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 17W 6D 7L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Aalesund's form line: 2W 5D 23L from 30 games, 0.37 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 1.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Viking have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 12L from 15 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.00 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Aalesund in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 (0.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Aalesund away?
Viking's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.00 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Viking
2
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Aalesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 93% for Viking, 53% for Aalesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Viking and 73% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 93% of Viking's games and 53% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Viking's matches and 73% of Aalesund's.
Do Viking and Aalesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Aalesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Aalesund 1-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.05 xG and Aalesund 1.06 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Viking fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Aalesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Aalesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 60% | Draw 21% | Aalesund 19%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Aalesund 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.