Stromsgodset 1-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 51%, yet in-form Molde provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Molde travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Molde's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stromsgodset, 1 for Molde and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 6–0 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stromsgodset trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Molde trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 58% and Molde 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 62% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.71 xG and Molde 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.072 / defence 0.941 | Molde attack 1.058 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.123. Data: 31 Stromsgodset games / 31 Molde games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 51% | Draw 24% | Molde 25%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 4.00. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 50% | Molde 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 51% | Draw 24% | Molde 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stromsgodset 1.71 / Molde 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.072 / def 0.941 | Molde attack 1.058 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Molde xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Molde kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Stromsgodset 1 - 3 Molde.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Molde part of?
Stromsgodset vs Molde is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 51% chance of winning, Molde a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stromsgodset and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.07x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.17
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.82
1.12
Molde xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.12 for Molde, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 16W 19D 25L from 60 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 38W 8D 14L across 60 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 11W 10D 9L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 15W 5D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Molde have gone 38W 8D 14L in their last 60 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.43 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Molde in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Molde specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Molde have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Molde 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Stromsgodset and 77% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 67% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 77% of Molde's.
Do Stromsgodset and Molde tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stromsgodset 1-3 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.71 xG and Molde 1.12 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Molde attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 51% | Draw 24% | Molde 25%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Molde win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Molde 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.