Ham-Kam 3-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.47 xG and Sandefjord 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.929 / defence 1.211 | Sandefjord attack 1.154 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.180. Data: 2 Ham-Kam games / 32 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 42%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Ham-Kam 1.47 / Sandefjord 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.929 / def 1.211 | Sandefjord attack 1.154 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sandefjord xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam 3 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 34% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sandefjord away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.22
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.12
1.65
Sandefjord xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.65 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 6, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 3-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.47 xG and Sandefjord 1.65 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Sandefjord attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 42%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.