Ham-Kam 3-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.47 xG and Sandefjord 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.929 / defence 1.211 | Sandefjord attack 1.154 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.180. Data: 2 Ham-Kam games / 32 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 42%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Ham-Kam 1.47 / Sandefjord 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.929 / def 1.211 | Sandefjord attack 1.154 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sandefjord xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam 3 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 34% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sandefjord away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.22
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.12
1.65
Sandefjord xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.65 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 6, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 3-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.47 xG and Sandefjord 1.65 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Sandefjord attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 42%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.