Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.10 PPG lead over Rosenborg (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Rosenborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Rosenborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 70% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG and Rosenborg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.067 / defence 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 1.067 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.133. Data: 30 Bodo/Glimt games / 30 Rosenborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Rosenborg 3.85. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.66 / Rosenborg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.067 / def 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 1.067 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 50% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.07) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.07x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.11
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.80
1.14
Rosenborg xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.14 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 44W 12D 4L from 60 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 16L across 60 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 25W 4D 1L from 30 games — 2.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.28 conceded. Rosenborg's attacking output running into Bodo/Glimt's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 62%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Rosenborg away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.63 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
5
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Rosenborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 53%, Rosenborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bodo/Glimt and 63% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 63% of Rosenborg's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg finished level at 2-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG and Rosenborg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 26%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 70%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.