Valerenga 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valerenga have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valerenga's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Intility Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Valerenga's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Valerenga register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Haugesund in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Valerenga 2W, Haugesund 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valerenga — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Haugesund — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 68% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Haugesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.68 xG and Haugesund 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.028 / defence 0.934 | Haugesund attack 0.984 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.123. Data: 31 Valerenga games / 31 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 4.35. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Valerenga 1.68 / Haugesund 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.028 / def 0.934 | Haugesund attack 0.984 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Haugesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Valerenga 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Haugesund part of?
Valerenga vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 53% chance of winning, Haugesund a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valerenga and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.98x) against Valerenga's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.14
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.72
1.03
Haugesund xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.03 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 22D 12L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (20W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Valerenga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valerenga's home form reads 17W 12D 1L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 26W 22D 12L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Haugesund away?
Valerenga's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.10 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valerenga
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Valerenga, 60% for Haugesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valerenga) and 57% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Valerenga's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Valerenga's matches and 57% of Haugesund's.
Do Valerenga and Haugesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Haugesund 2-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.68 xG and Haugesund 1.03 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 23%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Haugesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.