Kristiansund BK 2-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 51%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Kristiansund BK welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 65% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 62% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.79 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.056 / defence 1.040 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.049 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.123. Data: 31 Kristiansund BK games / 31 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 26%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.85. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.79 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.056 / def 1.040 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.049 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 51% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.31
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.02
1.23
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
4%
22.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.23 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 26W 16D 18L from 60 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 27L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.57 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 17W 6D 7L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 7W 6D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.90 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 67%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kristiansund BK) and 57% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kristiansund BK's games and 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 57% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Kristiansund BK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Kristiansund BK 2-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.79 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 26%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 62%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.57 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.