Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Rosenborg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rosenborg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Rosenborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% versus Rosenborg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 xG and Rosenborg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.872 / defence 0.953 | Rosenborg attack 1.139 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.180. Data: 32 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 32 Rosenborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 / Rosenborg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.872 / def 0.953 | Rosenborg attack 1.139 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.14x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.87
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.69
1.28
Rosenborg xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.28 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 14D 27L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.67 PPG from 60 outings (28W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Rosenborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 63% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games; Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 60% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 63% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg finished level at 1-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 xG and Rosenborg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Rosenborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 34%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.