Lillestrom 2-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Mjondalen at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Eliteserien matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Eliteserien appearances (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.62 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 1.62 PPG, Mjondalen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Lillestrom in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 62% and Mjondalen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 50% | Mjondalen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.26 xG and Mjondalen 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.914 / defence 1.008 | Mjondalen attack 0.966 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.157. Data: 8 Lillestrom games / 38 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 37% | Draw 32% | Mjondalen 31%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Mjondalen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 50% | Mjondalen 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 37% | Draw 32% | Mjondalen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Lillestrom 1.26 / Mjondalen 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.914 / def 1.008 | Mjondalen attack 0.966 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Mjondalen xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Mjondalen kick off?
Lillestrom vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Lillestrom 2 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Lillestrom vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Mjondalen part of?
Lillestrom vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 37% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lillestrom and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Mjondalen in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.12
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Mjondalen xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.13 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 3L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Mjondalen in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Mjondalen away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.25 PPG; Mjondalen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Mjondalen?
From 2 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when Mjondalen 1-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Mjondalen?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 50%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lillestrom) and 50% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 50% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lillestrom's recent games and 50% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Mjondalen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Mjondalen 2-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.26 xG and Mjondalen 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Mjondalen attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 37% | Draw 32% | Mjondalen 31%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 50%, Mjondalen 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.