Lillestrom vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 5W 1D 3L from 9 Eliteserien matches — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 4W 0D 1L at Åråsen Stadion — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.78 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 1.78 PPG, Haugesund 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lillestrom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lillestrom have won 1, Haugesund 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 67% versus Haugesund 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 56% | Haugesund 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.26 xG and Haugesund 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.962 / defence 0.991 | Haugesund attack 0.740 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Haugesund's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Lillestrom games / 39 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 44% | Draw 33% | Haugesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Haugesund 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lillestrom 60% | Haugesund 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 44% | Draw 33% | Haugesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Lillestrom 1.26 / Haugesund 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.962 / def 0.991 | Haugesund attack 0.740 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Haugesund xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Haugesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Haugesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 44% chance of winning, Haugesund a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lillestrom and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.96) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
44%
2.26
33%
3.06
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.10
0.84
Haugesund xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.84 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 5W 1D 3L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.78 PPG, Haugesund on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Haugesund in 22%.
Defensively: Haugesund in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Haugesund away?
Lillestrom's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 3.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Haugesund in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
0
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Haugesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 50%, Haugesund 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lillestrom) and 25% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Haugesund in 50%; Haugesund in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 25% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lillestrom's recent games and 25% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Haugesund tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as Lillestrom and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.26 xG and Haugesund 0.84 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Haugesund attack 0.74 / defence 0.80, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 44% | Draw 33% | Haugesund 23%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 56%, Haugesund 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.78 PPG, Haugesund 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.