Molde 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ham-Kam's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Molde. A 0.50 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Molde lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 4–0 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 59% versus Ham-Kam 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 71% | Ham-Kam 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.57 xG and Ham-Kam 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.300 / defence 0.900 | Ham-Kam attack 0.870 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 2.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Molde games / 59 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 68% | Draw 17% | Ham-Kam 15%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Ham-Kam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Molde (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Molde 40% | Ham-Kam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 68% | Draw 17% | Ham-Kam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 63% | xG Molde 2.57 / Ham-Kam 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.300 / def 0.900 | Ham-Kam attack 0.870 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Molde (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ham-Kam xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Molde vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Molde 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Molde vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Ham-Kam part of?
Molde vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 68% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Molde and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.30) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.87x) against Molde's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
68%
1.46
17%
5.91
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Molde xG
Total xG
3.71
1.14
Ham-Kam xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
8%
13.05
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
1%
88.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Molde and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Molde and 1.14 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Molde have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 40W 8D 11L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 16W 16D 27L from 59 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.28 PPG from 29 outings (21W 3D 5L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 7D 16L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.20 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 40W 8D 11L in their last 59 games (2.17 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 16D 27L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Ham-Kam away?
Molde's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.28 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Molde or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Molde
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 55%, Ham-Kam 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Molde and 66% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Molde's games and 66% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Molde's matches and 66% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Molde and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.57 xG and Ham-Kam 1.14 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Molde fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Ham-Kam attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 68% | Draw 17% | Ham-Kam 15%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 71%, Ham-Kam 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.