Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 4W 5D 1L at Aspmyra Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 57% versus Sandefjord 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 57% | Sandefjord 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.94 xG and Sandefjord 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.287 / defence 1.025 | Sandefjord attack 0.856 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.375. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Bodo/Glimt games / 54 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 15% | Sandefjord 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 | Draw 6.67 | Sandefjord 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (73%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 15% | Sandefjord 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 66% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.94 / Sandefjord 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.287 / def 1.025 | Sandefjord attack 0.856 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.29x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
73%
1.37
15%
6.85
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.15
1.21
Sandefjord xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.85
15%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
5%
19.01
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
1%
150.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.21 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 15D 8L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.09 PPG from 54 outings (16W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 15W 10D 2L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (9W 1D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.37 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 15D 8L in their last 54 games (2.00 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.04 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 59%, Sandefjord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Bodo/Glimt and 78% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 52% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 78% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 4-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.94 xG and Sandefjord 1.21 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.29 / defence 1.02 against Sandefjord attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 15% | Sandefjord 13%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 57%, Sandefjord 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.