Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Haugesund (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Haugesund are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 0, Haugesund 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% and Haugesund 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% | Haugesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG and Haugesund 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.987 / defence 1.262 | Haugesund attack 0.869 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.828 / away 1.391. Data: 54 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 54 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 38%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 / Haugesund 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.987 / def 1.262 | Haugesund attack 0.869 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.828 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Haugesund xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 38% chance of winning, Haugesund a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.99) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.14
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.03
1.52
Haugesund xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.52 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 20W 8D 26L from 54 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 23L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.26 PPG, Haugesund on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 3W 8D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Haugesund in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 20W 8D 26L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.46 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, Haugesund 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 58% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 4-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG and Haugesund 1.52 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against Haugesund attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 38%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%, Haugesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.26 PPG, Haugesund 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.