jerv 0-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this jerv vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to J.J. Ugland Stadion to face jerv in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
jerv (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at J.J. Ugland Stadion, jerv have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — jerv lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
jerv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — jerv 52% versus Aalesund 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (jerv 64% | Aalesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects jerv 1.35 xG and Aalesund 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: jerv attack 0.713 / defence 1.320 | Aalesund attack 0.773 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.788 / away 1.396. jerv's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 jerv games / 25 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: jerv 36% | Draw 25% | Aalesund 39%. Fair-value odds: jerv 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Aalesund 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aalesund as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aalesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: jerv 50% | Aalesund 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: jerv vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: jerv 36% | Draw 25% | Aalesund 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG jerv 1.35 / Aalesund 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: jerv attack 0.713 / def 1.320 | Aalesund attack 0.773 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.788 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
jerv xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Aalesund xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does jerv vs Aalesund kick off?
jerv vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What was the final score in jerv vs Aalesund?
jerv 0 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is jerv vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What competition is jerv vs Aalesund part of?
jerv vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win jerv vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives jerv a 36% chance of winning, Aalesund a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in jerv vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both jerv and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will jerv vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): jerv 0W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are jerv and Aalesund in?
jerv (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates jerv's attack at 0.71x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.77x) against jerv's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
36%
2.80
25%
3.94
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
jerv xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
Aalesund xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for jerv vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are jerv and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for jerv and 1.42 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for jerv vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
jerv come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 2D 18L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (7W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
jerv's home form reads 4W 1D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.68 PPG overall — jerv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
jerv are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.04 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
jerv
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are jerv and Aalesund in coming into this match?
jerv have gone 5W 2D 18L in their last 25 games (0.68 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — jerv at home or Aalesund away?
jerv's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — jerv at home: 1.08 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
jerv
0
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Aalesund?
From 2 meetings on record, jerv have won 0, Aalesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did jerv and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2022, when jerv 0-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between jerv and Aalesund?
Aalesund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
jerv see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — jerv 42%, Aalesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (jerv) and 67% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: jerv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aalesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = jerv home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when jerv play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of jerv's recent matches and 50% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is jerv vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of jerv's recent games and 67% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do jerv and Aalesund tend to score early?
jerv have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aalesund edge out jerv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat jerv 0-1 at J.J. Ugland Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting jerv 1.35 xG and Aalesund 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. jerv fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of jerv attack 0.71 / defence 1.32 against Aalesund attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it jerv 36% | Draw 25% | Aalesund 39%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (jerv 64%, Aalesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
jerv's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aalesund's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Aalesund arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.68. Form held, and they took the win. jerv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.