Viking 0-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Viking register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lillestrom in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Viking, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Lillestrom — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Viking winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 76% and Lillestrom 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 70% | Lillestrom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.55 xG and Lillestrom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 0.906 / defence 0.986 | Lillestrom attack 1.018 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.375. Data: 54 Viking games / 54 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 34%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Lillestrom 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Lillestrom 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Viking 1.55 / Lillestrom 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 0.906 / def 0.986 | Lillestrom attack 1.018 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lillestrom xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Lillestrom kick off?
Viking vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Viking 0 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Viking vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Lillestrom part of?
Viking vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 42% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
Record (3 meetings): Viking 3W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Viking and Lillestrom in?
Viking (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Viking's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.02x) against Viking's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.08
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Viking xG
Total xG
2.93
1.38
Lillestrom xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Viking and 1.38 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 26W 12D 16L from 54 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 15L across 54 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Viking against 1.72 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 11W 7D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.67 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 games (1.67 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 27W 12D 15L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Lillestrom away?
Viking's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.88 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Viking
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Viking have won 7, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Lillestrom?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Viking, 77% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Viking and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Viking's games and 77% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Viking's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Viking and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Viking 0-3 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.55 xG and Lillestrom 1.38 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Viking fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lillestrom outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Lillestrom attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 42% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 34%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 70%, Lillestrom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.67 PPG, Lillestrom 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.