Sandefjord 1-2 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host jerv at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Release Arena, Sandefjord have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, jerv stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
jerv's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandefjord 0.30 PPG, jerv 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sandefjord have won 1, jerv 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
jerv in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 68% and jerv 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 88% | jerv 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.49 xG and jerv 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.891 / defence 1.389 | jerv attack 0.818 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.875 / away 1.375. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Sandefjord games / 24 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 19% | jerv 23%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | jerv 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 90% | jerv 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 19% | jerv 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG Sandefjord 2.49 / jerv 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.891 / def 1.389 | jerv attack 0.818 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.875 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.56
jerv xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs jerv kick off?
Sandefjord vs jerv kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs jerv?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 jerv.
Where is Sandefjord vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs jerv part of?
Sandefjord vs jerv is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 58% chance of winning, jerv a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Sandefjord and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 0 | jerv 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and jerv in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. jerv (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.89) and jerv's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, jerv's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
58%
1.73
19%
5.34
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
4.05
1.56
jerv xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
8%
12.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
2%
51.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.56 for jerv, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 5D 14L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, jerv sit at 0.60 PPG from 25 outings (4W 3D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 0.92 PPG, jerv on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 1W 5D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, jerv have taken 0.08 points per game from 12 outings (0W 1D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 1.00 scored and 2.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and jerv in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while jerv have gone 4W 3D 18L in their last 25 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or jerv away?
Sandefjord's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 0.67 PPG; jerv away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
0
Draws
1
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, jerv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Sandefjord 1-2 jerv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
jerv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 92%, jerv at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sandefjord and 83% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 92% of Sandefjord's games and 58% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sandefjord's matches and 83% of jerv's.
Do Sandefjord and jerv tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, jerv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as jerv defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
jerv beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.49 xG and jerv 1.56 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 1.39 against jerv attack 0.82 / defence 1.49, drawn from 55/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 58% | Draw 19% | jerv 23%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a jerv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 88%, jerv 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
jerv's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 0.92 PPG, jerv 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the jerv win broke the near-deadlock. jerv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.