Molde 5-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.50 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Aker Stadion this season.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Molde. A 2.10 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (3.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Molde have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ham-Kam in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Molde lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 58% and Ham-Kam 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 67% | Ham-Kam 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.19 xG and Ham-Kam 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.257 / defence 0.782 | Ham-Kam attack 0.796 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.375. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Molde's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Molde games / 24 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 68% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 13%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Ham-Kam 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Molde (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | Ham-Kam 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 68% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG Molde 2.19 / Ham-Kam 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.257 / def 0.782 | Ham-Kam attack 0.796 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Molde (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ham-Kam xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Molde vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Molde 5 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Molde vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Ham-Kam part of?
Molde vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 68% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Molde and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Molde 0W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in?
Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.26) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.80x) against Molde's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.30
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Molde xG
Total xG
3.04
0.86
Ham-Kam xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
66.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Molde and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Molde and 0.86 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Molde have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 19W 3D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 5W 11D 8L from 24 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 6D 4L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.17 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 71%.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 19W 3D 2L in their last 24 games (2.50 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 5W 11D 8L in their last 24 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Ham-Kam away?
Molde's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.27 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Molde or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Molde
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Molde, 91% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Molde and 54% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Molde's games and 91% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Molde's matches and 54% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Molde and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Ham-Kam 5-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.19 xG and Ham-Kam 0.86 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Ham-Kam attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 68% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 13%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 67%, Ham-Kam 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Molde (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.