Sandefjord 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 0.90 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 3–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 58% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 74% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.07 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.962 / defence 1.514 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.134 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.384. Data: 53 Sandefjord games / 53 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 35% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 46%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.86 | Draw 5.26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 90% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 35% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG Sandefjord 2.07 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.962 / def 1.514 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.134 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sandefjord 1 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 35% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 46% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 2.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
35%
2.88
19%
5.16
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
2 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
4.45
2.38
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.88
35%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.82
Clean Sheet
9%
10.76
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
3%
31.01
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Sandefjord and 2.38 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 4.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 10D 27L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.26 PPG from 53 outings (20W 7D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.09 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (9W 1D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.53 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 10D 27L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 20W 7D 26L in their last 53 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.15 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 65%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Sandefjord and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sandefjord's games and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Release Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.07 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38 xG, a combined 4.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.96 / defence 1.51 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.13 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 35% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 46%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 74%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.09 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.