Valerenga 0-6 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Valerenga welcome Bodo/Glimt to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Valerenga) versus 2.00 (Bodo/Glimt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Valerenga.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–5 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 62% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 58% | Bodo/Glimt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.96 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.251 / defence 0.714 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.427 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.875 / away 1.375. Valerenga carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.427 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Valerenga's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Valerenga games / 55 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 51% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 27%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 3.70. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valerenga 30% | Bodo/Glimt 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 51% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Valerenga 1.96 / Bodo/Glimt 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.251 / def 0.714 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.427 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.875 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Bodo/Glimt xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Valerenga 0 - 6 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 51% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (5 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in?
Valerenga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.57
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.37
1.40
Bodo/Glimt xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
4%
25.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.40 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 24W 15D 16L from 55 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 8L across 55 games — 2.02 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 16W 8D 3L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 16W 5D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.24 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 24W 15D 16L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 15D 8L in their last 55 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Valerenga's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.07 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valerenga
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 59%, Bodo/Glimt 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Valerenga) and 56% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Valerenga's games and 56% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Valerenga's matches and 56% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 0-6 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.96 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.40 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Valerenga fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.40 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.25 / defence 0.71 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.43 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 51% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 27%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 58%, Bodo/Glimt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.58. That form edge translated into the three points. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.