Roda 0-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 80% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Roda have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Roda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 1.10 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Roda edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Roda 0–1 Jong Utrecht — a Jong Utrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 55% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | Jong Utrecht 45%). Note also that Jong Utrecht surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.112 / defence 0.643 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.652 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Roda's projected output up. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.652 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.643), which is pulling Jong Utrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 60 games and Jong Utrecht's last 60.
Result probabilities: Roda 80% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 6%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.26 | Draw 6.81 | Jong Utrecht 17.36. The model has a clear lean to Roda (80%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 80% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Roda 2.56 / Jong Utrecht 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.112 / def 0.643 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.652 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Roda (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Jong Utrecht xG
41%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does Roda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 26 January 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Roda 0 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Roda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 80% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Roda and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Roda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.11) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.65x) against Roda's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 60 games and Jong Utrecht's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
80%
1.26
15%
6.81
6%
17.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Roda xG
Total xG
3.14
0.58
Jong Utrecht xG
1.26
80%
Home win
6.81
15%
Draw
17.36
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
8%
12.91
Win to Nil
45%
2.25
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Roda and 0.58 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 35L across 60 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 16W 5D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 4D 24L across their last 30 away games, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.87 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Roda (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Roda vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 14D 35L in their last 60 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.77 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Roda have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won Roda 4-1 Jong Utrecht on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Roda
2
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Jong Utrecht 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Roda and 63% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and Jong Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 53% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 63% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Roda and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Roda's recent matches and 83% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and Jong Utrecht finished level at 0-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.58 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.11 / defence 0.64 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.65 / defence 1.40, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 80% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 6%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 50%, Jong Utrecht 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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