Roda 0-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 8W 1D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 1.10 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Roda, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Jong Utrecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 55% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | Jong Utrecht 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.112 / defence 0.643 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.652 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Roda's defence rating of 0.643 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Roda games / 60 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 80% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 6%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.25 | Draw 6.67 | Jong Utrecht 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Roda (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 40% | Jong Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 80% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 41% | xG Roda 2.56 / Jong Utrecht 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.112 / def 0.643 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.652 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Roda (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Jong Utrecht xG
41%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Roda 0 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Roda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 80% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Roda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.11) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.65x) against Roda's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
80%
1.26
15%
6.81
6%
17.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Roda xG
Total xG
3.14
0.58
Jong Utrecht xG
1.26
80%
Home win
6.81
15%
Draw
17.36
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
8%
12.91
Win to Nil
45%
2.25
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Roda and 0.58 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 35L across 60 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 16W 5D 9L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 4D 24L across 30 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.87 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 14D 35L in their last 60 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.77 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Roda
2
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Jong Utrecht 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Roda and 63% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 53% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 63% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Roda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and Jong Utrecht finished level at 0-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.58 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.11 / defence 0.64 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.65 / defence 1.40, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 80% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 6%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 50%, Jong Utrecht 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.