MVV 3-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates MVV at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to De Geusselt to face MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. MVV's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — MVV have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Utrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — MVV lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 68% versus Jong Utrecht 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 66% | Jong Utrecht 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.03 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.933 / defence 0.937 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.692 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.433. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 MVV games / 59 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 62% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 15%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 6.67. The model has a clear lean to MVV (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 60% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 62% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG MVV 2.03 / Jong Utrecht 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.933 / def 0.937 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.692 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: MVV (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
MVV xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
MVV vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 January 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong Utrecht?
MVV 3 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is MVV vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong Utrecht part of?
MVV vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 62% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both MVV and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are MVV and Jong Utrecht in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.93) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.69x) against MVV's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.32
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
MVV xG
Total xG
2.96
0.93
Jong Utrecht xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
2%
49.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for MVV and 0.93 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
MVV's recent record stands at 24W 10D 25L from 59 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 34L across 59 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, MVV have managed 15W 6D 8L from 29 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 4D 23L across 29 trips, a 0.34 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 24W 10D 25L in their last 59 games (1.39 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 14D 34L in their last 59 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong Utrecht away?
MVV's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.76 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 5-0 on 18 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
2
Draws
4
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when MVV 2-2 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 69%, Jong Utrecht 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for MVV and 62% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of MVV's games and 55% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of MVV's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do MVV and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant MVV run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Jong Utrecht 3-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.03 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.93 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.69 / defence 1.34, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 62% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 15%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 66%, Jong Utrecht 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.