Jong AZ 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong AZ face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Jong AZ's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong AZ have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Roda away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.70 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Jong AZ, 3 for Roda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Jong AZ 1–3 Roda — a Roda win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Roda — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 61% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 62% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.50 xG and Roda 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.156 / defence 1.023 | Roda attack 0.862 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.311. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 61 games and Roda's last 61.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 43% | Draw 30% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.32 | Draw 3.39 | Roda 3.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | Roda 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 43% | Draw 30% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Jong AZ 1.50 / Roda 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.156 / def 1.023 | Roda attack 0.862 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs Roda FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs Roda kick off?
Jong AZ vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 5 February 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Jong AZ 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Jong AZ vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Roda part of?
Jong AZ vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 43% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong AZ and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.86x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 61 games and Roda's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.39
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.65
1.16
Roda xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.16 for Roda, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 14D 24L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (24W 15D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.43 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Roda
Blended
Jong AZ (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Jong AZ vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 23W 14D 24L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Roda have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Roda away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.70 PPG; Roda away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jong AZ and Roda, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won Jong AZ 6-1 Roda on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
1
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 5, Roda have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Roda 2-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Roda?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 57%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jong AZ) and 43% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and Roda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong AZ and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jong AZ's recent games and 43% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 73% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Roda 1-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.50 xG and Roda 1.16 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Roda attack 0.86 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 43% | Draw 30% | Roda 27%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 62%, Roda 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.36 PPG, Roda 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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