Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Helmond Sport welcome NAC Breda to GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Helmond Sport have won 1, NAC Breda 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Helmond Sport 1–1 NAC Breda — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (last 60 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
NAC Breda trading profile (last 60 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 58% and NAC Breda 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 57% | NAC Breda 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.67 xG and NAC Breda 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.043 / defence 1.156 | NAC Breda attack 1.367 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. NAC Breda have an above-average attack rating of 1.367, which lifts their away xG to 2.19. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 60 games and NAC Breda's last 59.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 49%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.45 | Draw 4.59 | NAC Breda 2.03. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.67 / 2.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.67 / NAC Breda 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.043 / def 1.156 | NAC Breda attack 1.367 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.19
NAC Breda xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 26 January 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda part of?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 29% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Helmond Sport and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.04x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 60 games and NAC Breda's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
29%
3.45
22%
4.59
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.85
2.19
NAC Breda xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
11%
8.90
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
3%
30.71
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 2.19 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (28W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 4D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.78 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 73%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
Helmond Sport (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 28W 9D 23L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.42 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won Helmond Sport 4-0 NAC Breda.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 2, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Helmond Sport 0-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 64%, NAC Breda at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Helmond Sport and 77% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Helmond Sport's games and 74% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Helmond Sport's matches and 77% of NAC Breda's.
Do Helmond Sport and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 90% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat NAC Breda 1-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.67 xG and NAC Breda 2.19 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against NAC Breda attack 1.37 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 49%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 57%, NAC Breda 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (60 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (60 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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