Jong Ajax 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Ajax face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong Ajax have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dordrecht have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Jong Ajax edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Jong Ajax 0–4 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 73% and Dordrecht 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 65% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.88 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.973 / defence 0.830 | Dordrecht attack 0.975 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.344. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 60 games and Dordrecht's last 60.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 55% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.82 | Draw 4.10 | Dordrecht 4.83. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 50% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 55% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Jong Ajax 1.88 / Dordrecht 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.973 / def 0.830 | Dordrecht attack 0.975 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dordrecht xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Jong Ajax 2 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 55% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong Ajax and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.97x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Jong Ajax's last 60 games and Dordrecht's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.10
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.97
1.09
Dordrecht xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
3%
31.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.09 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 18D 25L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (18W 17D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.18 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong Ajax's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Ajax
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 17W 18D 25L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.52 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 Jong Ajax on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Ajax have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Dordrecht 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Jong Ajax, 66% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jong Ajax) and 52% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Ajax and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Jong Ajax's games and 66% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong Ajax's matches and 52% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong Ajax and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 79% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax and Dordrecht finished level at 2-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.88 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Dordrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 55% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 21%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 65%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG, Dordrecht 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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