De Graafschap 3-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
VVV Venlo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against De Graafschap's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VVV Venlo have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 55% and VVV Venlo 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.56 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.043 / defence 0.916 | VVV Venlo attack 0.846 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Data: 60 De Graafschap games / 60 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | VVV Venlo 4.00. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
VVV Venlo lead the H2H ledger, but De Graafschap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.56 / VVV Venlo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.043 / def 0.916 | VVV Venlo attack 0.846 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.07
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 3 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 48% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.66
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
VVV Venlo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.07 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 27W 10D 23L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 23W 19D 18L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.52 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (15W 5D 9L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 11W 9D 9L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.50 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo in 72%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 27W 10D 23L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 23W 19D 18L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.72 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.45 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 48%, VVV Venlo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (De Graafschap) and 59% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of De Graafschap's games and 69% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of De Graafschap's recent games and 59% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 3-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.56 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against VVV Venlo attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 48% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 25%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.52 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.