De Graafschap 3-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, VVV Venlo have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of De Graafschap's games and 60% of VVV Venlo's (from De Graafschap's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, VVV Venlo have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for De Graafschap.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended De Graafschap 0–2 VVV Venlo — a VVV Venlo win.
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 55% and VVV Venlo 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | VVV Venlo 60%). Note also that VVV Venlo surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while De Graafschap recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.56 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.043 / defence 0.916 | VVV Venlo attack 0.846 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 60 games and VVV Venlo's last 60.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.10 | Draw 3.66 | VVV Venlo 3.99. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 60% (last 10 home games) | VVV Venlo 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG De Graafschap 1.56 / VVV Venlo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.043 / def 0.916 | VVV Venlo attack 0.846 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.07
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 26 January 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 3 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 48% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 60 games and VVV Venlo's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.66
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
VVV Venlo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.07 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 27W 10D 23L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
VVV Venlo's form line: 23W 19D 18L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.52 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.72 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 5D 9L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 11W 9D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.50 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo in 72%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs VVV Venlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 27W 10D 23L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 23W 19D 18L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.72 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.45 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won De Graafschap 3-0 VVV Venlo.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
6
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 48%, VVV Venlo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (De Graafschap) and 59% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and VVV Venlo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of De Graafschap's games and 69% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of De Graafschap's recent games and 59% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 69% of VVV Venlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 3-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.56 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against VVV Venlo attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 48% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 25%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.52 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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