Cambuur 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cambuur welcome FC OSS to Cambuur Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cambuur have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cambuur at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
FC OSS away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Cambuur have won 1, FC OSS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 9.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Cambuur 8–1 FC OSS — a Cambuur win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 9.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 71% | FC OSS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.99 xG and FC OSS 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.237 / defence 1.243 | FC OSS attack 0.558 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.344. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.558 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC OSS's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 21 games and FC OSS's last 60.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 16%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.64 | Draw 4.36 | FC OSS 6.26. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 90% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cambuur 1.99 / FC OSS 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.237 / def 1.243 | FC OSS attack 0.558 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC OSS xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs FC OSS kick off?
Cambuur vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Cambuur 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Cambuur vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC OSS part of?
Cambuur vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 61% chance of winning, FC OSS a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambuur and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cambuur vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.24x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 21 games and FC OSS's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.36
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.92
0.93
FC OSS xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
45.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.93 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 15W 8D 32L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 9D 34L from 55 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 0.96 PPG, FC OSS on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 3D 16L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 6D 18L from their last 27 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.93 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Cambuur (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 8D 32L in their last 55 games (0.96 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 9D 34L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC OSS away?
Cambuur's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Cambuur have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2023, when Cambuur won FC OSS 1-8 Cambuur.
Cambuur's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 3, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: FC OSS 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 52%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Cambuur and 48% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 37% of games; FC OSS in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cambuur's recent matches and 48% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambuur and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Cambuur's matches and 48% of FC OSS's.
Do Cambuur and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Cambuur's recent matches and 70% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.99 xG and FC OSS 0.93 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC OSS outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.24 / defence 1.24 against FC OSS attack 0.56 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 61% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 16%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, FC OSS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.96 PPG, FC OSS 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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