Roda 3-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 22 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 0.70 PPG lead over FC Eindhoven (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Roda 1W, FC Eindhoven 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 49% | FC Eindhoven 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.63 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.038 / defence 0.732 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.211 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.399. FC Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Roda's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Roda games / 59 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 45% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 28%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 3.57. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 45% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Roda 1.63 / FC Eindhoven 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.038 / def 0.732 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.211 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Roda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 January 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Roda 3 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Roda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 45% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Roda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.21x) against Roda's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.70
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Roda xG
Total xG
2.87
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Roda and 1.24 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 14D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.44 PPG from 59 outings (22W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Roda against 1.44 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Roda's home form reads 15W 5D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.42 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 19D 18L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Roda's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.72 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
5
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 62%, FC Eindhoven 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Roda) and 48% (FC Eindhoven).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Roda's games and 59% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Roda's recent games and 48% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC Eindhoven 3-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.63 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.04 / defence 0.73 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.21 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 45% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 28%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 49%, FC Eindhoven 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.41 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.