Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Almere City FC at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Almere City FC welcome Helmond Sport to Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Almere City FC — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Almere City FC have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for Helmond Sport and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Almere City FC 1–2 Helmond Sport — a Helmond Sport win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 49% versus Helmond Sport 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 58% | Helmond Sport 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.42 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.165 / defence 0.976 | Helmond Sport attack 0.629 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Helmond Sport's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 25 games and Helmond Sport's last 64.

Result probabilities: Almere City FC 70% | Draw 19% | Helmond Sport 11%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.44 | Draw 5.22 | Helmond Sport 8.86. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (70%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 40% (last 10 away games).

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