Venezia 0-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Venezia (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Venezia face Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Modena (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Modena have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Venezia's favour (2.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Venezia have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Modena managing 0 and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Venezia 2–1 Modena — a Venezia win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Venezia and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 54% versus Modena 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Modena 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Modena have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Modena surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.30 xG and Modena 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.300 / defence 0.840 | Modena attack 0.892 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.066. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 1.30 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Modena bring a tight defence (rating 0.762, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Venezia's projected output down. Data: built from Venezia's last 23 games and Modena's last 61.
Result probabilities: Venezia 47% | Draw 31% | Modena 22%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.11 | Draw 3.27 | Modena 4.53. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Modena 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 47% | Draw 31% | Modena 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Venezia 1.30 / Modena 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.300 / def 0.840 | Modena attack 0.892 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Venezia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Modena xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Modena FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Modena kick off?
Venezia vs Modena kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Modena?
Venezia 0 - 2 Modena.
Where is Venezia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Modena part of?
Venezia vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 47% chance of winning, Modena a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Venezia and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Venezia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.89x) against Venezia's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 23 games and Modena's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.27
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.09
0.80
Modena xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Venezia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Venezia and 0.80 for Modena, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 19D 22L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Modena's form line: 19W 22D 20L from 61 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Venezia against 1.30 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Modena have gone 8W 11D 11L from their last 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Modena in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 20W 19D 22L in their last 61 games (1.30 PPG), while Modena have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Modena away?
Venezia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.67 PPG; Modena away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Venezia and Modena, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 10 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won Venezia 5-0 Modena on 1 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Modena?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 3, Modena have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2026: Venezia 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Modena?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 43%, Modena 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Venezia) and 37% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Modena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Venezia's recent matches and 47% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Venezia and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Venezia's recent games and 37% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Venezia's recent matches and 80% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.30 xG and Modena 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against Modena attack 0.89 / defence 0.76, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 47% | Draw 31% | Modena 22%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Modena 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.30 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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