Venezia 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Brescia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brescia — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Venezia have won 0, Brescia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (66 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brescia in-play tendencies (66 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 48% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.16 xG and Brescia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.833 / defence 1.202 | Brescia attack 0.671 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 0.978. Data: 28 Venezia games / 66 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 44% | Draw 32% | Brescia 24%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Brescia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 60% | Brescia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 44% | Draw 32% | Brescia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Venezia 1.16 / Brescia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.833 / def 1.202 | Brescia attack 0.671 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.167 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Venezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Brescia xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Brescia kick off?
Venezia vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Brescia?
Venezia 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Venezia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Brescia part of?
Venezia vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 44% chance of winning, Brescia a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Venezia and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Venezia and Brescia in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.83) and Brescia's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.08
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Venezia xG
Total xG
1.95
0.79
Brescia xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Venezia and 0.79 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 13W 17D 36L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 21W 24D 21L from 66 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.84 PPG from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 9W 11D 11L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.09 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 13W 17D 36L in their last 66 games (0.85 PPG), while Brescia have gone 21W 24D 21L in their last 66 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.84 PPG; Brescia away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Brescia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
3
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Brescia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Venezia 2-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Brescia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 64%, Brescia 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 32%; Venezia have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Venezia's recent matches and 45% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Brescia tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Brescia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 29, as Venezia and Brescia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.16 xG and Brescia 0.79 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Brescia attack 0.67 / defence 1.20, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 44% | Draw 32% | Brescia 24%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 48%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.