Genoa 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Ternana travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Genoa have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Genoa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Genoa, 0 for Ternana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ternana trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Ternana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.56 xG and Ternana 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.152 / defence 0.681 | Ternana attack 0.783 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 0.960. Genoa's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Genoa games / 66 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 62% | Draw 27% | Ternana 11%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.61 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (62%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ternana's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 20% | Ternana 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 62% | Draw 27% | Ternana 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 33% | xG Genoa 1.56 / Ternana 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.152 / def 0.681 | Ternana attack 0.783 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.159 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Genoa (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Ternana xG
33%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Ternana kick off?
Genoa vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Ternana?
Genoa 1 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Genoa vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Ternana part of?
Genoa vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 62% chance of winning, Ternana a 11% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Genoa and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Genoa and Ternana in?
Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.15) and Ternana's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
62%
1.61
27%
3.69
11%
9.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.08
0.51
Ternana xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
9.32
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
2%
44.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 10.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Genoa and 0.51 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Ternana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 25D 23L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ternana's form line: 24W 18D 24L from 66 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.20 PPG, Ternana on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (10W 14D 9L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 9W 11D 13L from 33 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Ternana in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 18W 25D 23L in their last 66 games (1.20 PPG), while Ternana have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Ternana away?
Genoa's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.33 PPG; Ternana away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Genoa or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ternana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Ternana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Genoa
0
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Ternana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Genoa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Ternana?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 33%, Ternana 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 61% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Genoa's recent matches and 70% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 61% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Ternana tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Ternana in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Ternana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Ternana 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.56 xG and Ternana 0.51 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.15 / defence 0.68 against Ternana attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 62% | Draw 27% | Ternana 11%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Ternana 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ternana's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.20 PPG, Ternana 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.