Parma 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Parma take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Sudtirol at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sudtirol — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Parma's 20% rate and Sudtirol's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Sudtirol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 39% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 36% | Sudtirol 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.926 / defence 0.922 | Sudtirol attack 0.960 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 0.978. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Parma games / 28 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 31% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 33%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Sudtirol 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Parma's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 20% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 31% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Parma 0.84 / Sudtirol 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.926 / def 0.922 | Sudtirol attack 0.960 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.167 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sudtirol xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Sudtirol kick off?
Parma vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Sudtirol?
Parma 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Parma vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Sudtirol part of?
Parma vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 31% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Parma and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Parma and Sudtirol in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
36%
2.79
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Parma xG
Total xG
1.71
0.87
Sudtirol xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 15.6 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Parma and 0.87 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Parma have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 11W 7D 10L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 12W 11D 5L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.43 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (7W 0D 6L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 7W 3D 3L from 13 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 7D 10L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 12W 11D 5L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.62 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Parma or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Sudtirol 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Parma 31% BTTS, Sudtirol 23%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Parma and 23% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sudtirol in 54%; Parma have failed to score in 31% of games; Sudtirol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Parma's recent matches and 23% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Parma's recent games and 23% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 29, as Parma and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 0.87 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Sudtirol attack 0.96 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 31% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 36%, Sudtirol 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.43 PPG, Sudtirol 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.