Frosinone 3-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Venezia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Frosinone are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Frosinone, 0 for Venezia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Venezia trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 45% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 49% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.66 xG and Venezia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.403 / defence 0.971 | Venezia attack 0.900 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 0.989. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Frosinone games / 27 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 55% | Draw 26% | Venezia 18%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 55% | Draw 26% | Venezia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Frosinone 1.66 / Venezia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.403 / def 0.971 | Venezia attack 0.900 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.123 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Venezia xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Venezia kick off?
Frosinone vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Frosinone vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Venezia part of?
Frosinone vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 55% chance of winning, Venezia a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Frosinone and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Venezia in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.40) and Venezia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.78
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.52
0.86
Venezia xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
28.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.86 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 33W 17D 15L from 65 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 35L across 65 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 20W 8D 4L from 32 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 7W 8D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.97 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Venezia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 33W 17D 15L in their last 65 games (1.78 PPG), while Venezia have gone 13W 17D 35L in their last 65 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Venezia away?
Frosinone's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.12 PPG; Venezia away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Venezia in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2023, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Frosinone 1-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 41%, Venezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Frosinone) and 44% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Venezia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Frosinone's recent matches and 56% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Frosinone's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Venezia tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Venezia 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.66 xG and Venezia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.40 / defence 0.97 against Venezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 55% | Draw 26% | Venezia 18%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 49%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.